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January 16, 2009

Monetary Policy
A few quick words on the November TIC data

China sold $9.2 billion of long-term Treasuries. But it also bought $38.2b of short-term Treasuries. China’s total Treasury holdings are up by $29.1b. By contrast it sold $3.1b of long-term Ag…

A few quick words on the November TIC data

March 11, 2008

United States
More oil, less stuff: The US January trade data

The Fed’s dramatic policy announcement has justifiably overshadowed the January trade data, which didn’t tell us much that we didn’t already know. Suffice to say that the rise in the overall defic…

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November 13, 2008

United States
Ut-oh .... exports are starting to fall fast

For the US trade deficit to fall (setting the effect of falling oil prices aside), exports have to grow faster than imports -- or imports have to fall faster than exports. If exports fall faster tha…

Ut-oh .... exports are starting to fall fast

June 16, 2008

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
The April TIC data lends itself to a host of different headlines …

One might be “Foreigners love US Treasury bonds.” Foreign investors bought $80 billion of long-term Treasuries in April, and another $3.3 billion of short-term bills for good measure. Anyone who …

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October 20, 2008

United States
How far will the US trade deficit fall next year?

US exports have been growing faster than non-oil imports for the last two years. The August trade data hints at a slowdown in exports. But at least on a y/y basis, the slowdown remains modest. …

How far will the US trade deficit fall next year?