bg
Blogs

Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

Latest Post

China, More Than Trump, Has Been Driving the Slowdown in Global Trade

U.S. imports from China are down. China's imports from everyone are down. Read More

December 3, 2019

Asia
Asia Still Lags When It Comes to FX Market Transparency... Asia Still Lags When It Comes to FX Market Transparency...

Quarterly disclosure with a quarter lag doesn't add much to the numbers already provided in the balance of payments (especially if it isn't clear what is being disclosed). Semi-annual disclosure provides less information than what's already available in the balance of payments.

Read More

November 19, 2019

United States
Trump’s Sisyphean Task: Bringing Down the U.S. Trade Deficit Without A Fall in the Dollar Trump’s Sisyphean Task: Bringing Down the U.S. Trade Deficit Without A Fall in the Dollar

Stalled export growth is more a function of the strong dollar than of Trump's trade wars. U.S. non-petrol exports haven't grown over the last five years.

Read More

November 13, 2019

United States
A Big Borrower and a Giant Corporate Tax Dodge? How Best to Describe the U.S. External Balance Sheet A Big Borrower and a Giant Corporate Tax Dodge? How Best to Describe the U.S. External Balance Sheet

Most grandiose explanations for the United States' persistent surplus in the income balance of the U.S. current account miss the mark. The U.S. debt position tracks the sum of past current account deficits, and the interest rate on that debt tracks the U.S. Treasury rate. The surplus in the income line all comes from the excess income U.S. firms report earning in a few corporate tax havens.

Read More