The CNOOC bid presumably is motivated by two things. One, Beijing has plenty of cash, and already holds more Treasuries than it wants, so it wants to diversify its portfolio. As I argued earlier, C…

Nouriel and I postulated back in early 2005 that there was a meaningful risk that the next “emerging market” crisis might come from the US – and it might come sooner than most expected.   The basic q…

Sovereign funds argue that they are only interested in financial returns. And to be sure, they do care about financial returns. Losing money generally isn’t good for a sovereign fund’s long-term h…

I really liked Krishna Guha’s analysis of global imbalances that appeared in Wednesday’s FT.    His emphasis on the role of exchange rate adjustment in global rebalancing seemed right to me.  Exchang…

Alan Ruskin of RBS Greenwich capital makes an important point in the Financial Times.  The US has effectively outsourced its strong dollar policy to the emerging world.    It isn't even clear that th…