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Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

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Power and Financial Interdependence

by Brad W. Setser May 15, 2024

My new paper for the Geoeconomics and Geofinance Initiative of the Institute Français des Relations Internationals’ (IFRI) explores the history of the Sino-American financial relationship. Read More

Currency Reserves
It Is Time To Scrap the IMF's Reserve Adequacy Metric
The IMF reserve metric isn't working: it is failing to differentiate between obviously under-reserved countries like Turkey and Argentina and adequately reserved countries like China.
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser October 30, 2020 Follow the Money
Turkey
The Changing Nature of Turkey’s Balance Sheet Risks
Pay attention to banking system's foreign currency exposure to the government ...
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser October 23, 2020 Follow the Money
Trade
China’s Surplus is Rising Rapidly. So is the U.S. Deficit. The IMF Cannot Turn a Blind Eye.
Do not use the IMF’s current account forecast in the Fall 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO). It is already out of date.     
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser October 20, 2020 Follow the Money
  • Emerging Economies
    Reframing the Collective Action Problem in Sovereign Bond Restructuring
    A recent white paper from Lazard points out that emerging market sovereign bond holdings are often fairly concentrated among a handful of big players.  The main impediment to collective action may be less that bond holders are dispersed, and more that a handful of big holders all compete against each other and the benchmark.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser October 7, 2020 Follow the Money
  • China
    Record Chinese Bilateral Surpluses With the United States Are Not Mirrored in the U.S. Trade Data
    Is China’s surplus with the United States back at a record level? It depends. In China’s data, China’s exports to the United States and its surplus with the United States are at all-time highs. The United States’ import data, however, shows fewer imports from China than China reports exports—which is interesting, because the norm has long been the other way around.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser October 5, 2020 Follow the Money