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May 2, 2024

China
The President’s Inbox Recap: A Second China Shock

A surge in Chinese manufacturing exports is threatening jobs in many countries, not just the United States.

Three electric vehicles as viewed on a lift in a port.

April 18, 2024

Ukraine
The President’s Inbox Recap: Russia, Ukraine, and Global Instability

The war in Ukraine reflects collisions in Russia-Ukraine relations, Europe-Russia relations, and U.S.-Russia relations.

Two lines of military forces as viewed walking.

April 12, 2024

United States
Election 2024: The United States Is Facing a Second China Shock

Each Friday, I look at what the presidential contenders are saying about foreign policy. This Week: China’s effort to solve its economic woes by doubling down on exports is creating a policy challeng…

Chinese Imports

April 12, 2024

China
China’s New Currency Peg

The peg that shall not be named, and all the trouble that creates.

China’s New Currency Peg

March 18, 2024

Japan
The Japanese Bid for Foreign Bonds After the End of Yield Curve Control

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to end yield curve control. But Japanese yields will remain low, and foreign bonds will remain attractive to those Japanese investors who don’t have to hedg…

The Japanese Bid for Foreign Bonds After the End of Yield Curve Control

March 10, 2024

China
China’s Record Manufacturing Surplus

The U.S. likes talking about the dominance of the dollar. But don’t short-change China’s current dominance of manufacturing trade. Trade imbalances need to be taken seriously again.

Manufactured Goods Surpluses

February 22, 2024

Economics
The IMF Needs to Focus on Setting Good Targets for External Debt Sustainability

The IMF has two frameworks for assessing debt sustainability. The market access country framework is more technically advanced, but it isn't delivering reasonable targets for debt restructuring cases…

10-Year Bonds: Key Cases

February 5, 2024

China
China’s New Currency Playbook

China’s pivot to a new strategy of indirect intervention through its large state banks requires new approaches to policing currency policies by both the U.S. Treasury and IMF.

Settlement by banks in China vs. Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate

February 1, 2024

Russia
Mobilizing Russia’s Immobilized Reserves

A quick note on the debate over the use of Russia’s frozen reserves.

Euro banknotes at a money exchange office.

January 22, 2024

Economics
An SDR-Linked Bond Can Strengthen the Finances of the World Bank Group

SDR-denominated bonds have the potential to significantly strengthen the balance sheet of both the IBRD (The World Bank) and IDA, freeing up cash and helping both institutions deliver on their mandat…

An SDR-Linked Bond Can Strengthen the Finances of the World Bank Group