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December 9, 2002

Bosnia and Herzegovina
Without Sustained EU-U.S. Action, Balkans Face Serious Social, Economic Instability, Warns New CFR Task Force, Balkans 2010

December 9, 2002— After a decade of extensive involvement and peacemaking in the Balkans, the United States and its allies are winding down their commitment to the region. At this critical juncture, …

May 6, 2003

Colombia
Council Launches Blue-Ribbon Commission to Craft Urgently Needed New Strategy for Colombia and the Andes

MAY 6, 2003 - The Center for Preventive Action, a Council on Foreign Relations conflict prevention initiative, has launched a new Commission to make concrete recommendations for mitigating deadly con…

February 1, 2005

United States
One number to watch

My nomination for the single number that best captures the state of total’s world economy -- and a key risk going forward: The annual increase in central banks dollar reserves.It is not exactly a num…

November 19, 2004

Greenspan, part II

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan was careful to frame the risk created by rising US external debt for foreigners investing in the US (and in the process financing the US current account …

July 21, 2005

China shifts to a basket peg

But the change against the dollar is small.  Very small. Too small in my view to have much of an economic impact, in any way.  On trade flows.  Or on capital flows.  I would still bet on a furth…

June 27, 2005

China
Martin Wolf makes sense (the Economist does not)

Martin Wolf’s FT column makes a number of crucial points:1) Asia has let undervalued exchange rates (and reserve accumulation) substitute for policies to promote domestic demand. The (growing) back…

December 6, 2005

United States
Alan Greenspan, financial globalization, home bias and central bank reserves

The very last paragraph of Alan Greenspan's last speech on global imbalances seems to have generated the majority of the press that came out of his London speech on global imbalances.   I kind of…

home bias and central banks

May 22, 2005

Financial Markets
That strong renminbi (ok, that strong dollar)

The RMB has appreciated by about 7% against one of China’s major trading partners this year. Not the US, obviously. But that doesn’t mean that China is not exposed to moves in the dollar-euro, or t…

February 1, 2006

United States
A debt-for-goods swap, not a debt-for-equity swap; and dark antimatter, not dark matter

Stephen Jen argues that the US-Asian relationship can be understood as a debt for equity swap.    Asian - led by China - buys US debt; the US buys Asian equities/ invests in Asian plant and equipment…

April 30, 2006

Can the dollar block survive another bout of dollar weakness?

In case you haven't noticed, the dollar is now closer to 1.30 (v. the euro) than 1.20 - or even 1.15.  Carry is no longer king.   There is talk of a "regime change" in the fx market.  Or at least…