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Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

Latest Post

All Sound and No Fury? Will The Trump Administration Get Tough on Currency in April?

A number of Asian countries could be designated as manipulators in the U.S. Treasury's April foreign exchange report. And unlike the politically motivated designation of China last summer, there would be a clear analytical justification for a new round of designations. Read More

December 10, 2019

China
China, More Than Trump, Has Been Driving the Slowdown in Global Trade

U.S. imports from China are down. China's imports from everyone are down.

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December 3, 2019

Asia
Asia Still Lags When It Comes to FX Market Transparency... Asia Still Lags When It Comes to FX Market Transparency...

Quarterly disclosure with a quarter lag doesn't add much to the numbers already provided in the balance of payments (especially if it isn't clear what is being disclosed). Semi-annual disclosure provides less information than what's already available in the balance of payments.

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November 19, 2019

United States
Trump’s Sisyphean Task: Bringing Down the U.S. Trade Deficit Without A Fall in the Dollar Trump’s Sisyphean Task: Bringing Down the U.S. Trade Deficit Without A Fall in the Dollar

Stalled export growth is more a function of the strong dollar than of Trump's trade wars. U.S. non-petrol exports haven't grown over the last five years.

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