Rapprochement between Turkey and Saudi Arabia will likely restore a vital trade link as Erdogan’s government moves to improve regional ties amid deep economic troubles.

The war is threatening the region’s access to much-needed supplies, but certain countries are more vulnerable than others to food shortages and unrest.

Russia’s outsize impact on Turkish interests means Ankara is sticking to a middle ground on the war in Ukraine.

An imprisoned opponent, dire economic conditions, and ongoing tensions with the United States all pose challenges to President Erdogan’s increasingly erratic leadership.