I suspect the stock of outstanding synthetic credit derivatives -- $ 1500 b in synthetic CDOs in 2004 v. $300 b or so in 2001, according to Mark Whitehouse of the Wall Street Journal -- is the only t…

Nouriel and I postulated back in early 2005 that there was a meaningful risk that the next “emerging market” crisis might come from the US – and it might come sooner than most expected.   The basic q…

Macro Man asked the IMF to sort out a world where the US current account deficit is increasingly financed by the growth in emerging market reserves (and the expansion of a few investment funds).     …