Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that China's growth prospect lies somewhere between hard-landing and muddle-through scenarios. However, uncertainty remains and is already being felt strongly and likely to put increasing pressure on emerging markets through trade contraction and financial contagion. For the United States, fragility in emerging markets is the critical risk and will dominate economic decision-making for months if not years to come.

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the Russian economy is not yet facing a full-blown economic and financial crisis. An upturn in inflation and a deeper recession will be the real tests in the coming months.

Bottom Line: The crisis in Venezuela continues to escalate, with no recovery or relief in sight. A messy and chaotic default looms, and the rescue will likely involve a tough adjustment program, larg…

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the Group of Twenty (G20) policymakers agree on the importance of stronger and more inclusive growth to address growing populism, but disagree on who—central banks, treasuries, or legislatures—should take the lead. This standoff all but guarantees that the global recovery will continue to disappoint.

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) deserves credit for effectively responding to the global and European financial crises. However, the institution will face different and potentially more difficult challenges in the next five years as it struggles to come to terms with a changing international power order and lending rules that are not well suited to address future crises.