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November 13, 2008

United States
Ut-oh .... exports are starting to fall fast

For the US trade deficit to fall (setting the effect of falling oil prices aside), exports have to grow faster than imports -- or imports have to fall faster than exports. If exports fall faster tha…

Ut-oh .... exports are starting to fall fast

June 16, 2008

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
The April TIC data lends itself to a host of different headlines …

One might be “Foreigners love US Treasury bonds.” Foreign investors bought $80 billion of long-term Treasuries in April, and another $3.3 billion of short-term bills for good measure. Anyone who …

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October 20, 2008

United States
How far will the US trade deficit fall next year?

US exports have been growing faster than non-oil imports for the last two years. The August trade data hints at a slowdown in exports. But at least on a y/y basis, the slowdown remains modest. …

How far will the US trade deficit fall next year?

March 13, 2009

United States
The bad news hidden in the good news (today’s trade data)

The US January trade deficit fell to $36 billion. That is as low as it has been in a long time. The petroleum deficit (seasonally adjusted) fell to $14.7 billion -- $4 billion less than in Dece…

The bad news hidden in the good news (today’s trade data)

March 6, 2009

Monetary Policy
Russia says no to the Agencies ...

That isn’t exactly news. Those who follow the TIC data closely had little doubt that Russia was reducing its Agency portfolio. But the fact that Russia explicitly indicated its sovereign fund…

Russia says no to the Agencies ...