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January 13, 2009

Emerging Markets
The fall in the US trade deficit in November

I’ll be unusually brief. I have been working through the latest data on China -- and, well, it is hard to top Calculated Risk. The fall in the US trade deficit today was easy to anticipate. …

The fall in the US trade deficit in November

November 12, 2008

Monetary Policy
China’s fiscal stimulus doesn’t necessarily mean that it will stop buying Treasuries

I tend to be a bit better at spotting risks than opportunities. I have long worried that China might conclude that it is no longer in its interest to continue to buy ever larger quantities of Trea…

January 3, 2009

Monetary Policy
Secrets of SAFE, Part 1: Look to the UK to find some of China’s Treasuries and Agencies

Not everyone who read my earlier post on China’s flight from risky assets was convinced that a large share of the UK’s (net) Treasury purchases should be attributed to China. Talk is cheap. M…

Secrets of SAFE, Part 1:  Look to the UK to find some of China’s Treasuries and Agencies

April 24, 2009

Monetary Policy
"Not quite so SAFE": This week’s Economics Focus column

This week’s Economist covers two topics that regular readers know very, very well: China’s reserve growth and China’s holdings of US debt. The estimates for China’s US holdings in the Economist a…

May 27, 2009

Monetary Policy
The Treasury market, in a world no longer dominated by central bank reserve managers

In case you haven’t heard, the Treasury market – and the mortgage market -- had a bad day. Ten-year Treasury yields are back at their November 2008 levels (long-term Treasury yields didn’t fall imm…

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