Council of Councils
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Introduction
Over the last several decades, governments have collectively pledged to slow global warming. But despite intensified diplomacy, the world is already facing the consequences of climate…
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May 17, 2009
Monetary Policy
"We hate you guys ... but there is nothing much we can do"
That – now famous -- quote by Luo Peng isn’t really true. China’s government choose to peg its currency to the dollar. More importantly, China’s government choose to peg to the dollar at a rate t…
August 4, 2009
Monetary Policy
Bonus graph
A quick chart showing how my estimates (from work I have done with Arpana Pandey of the CFR) for official holdings of Treasuries and Agencies compares with the FRBNY custodial holdings and the data t…
February 26, 2009
Monetary Policy
Who bought all the Treasuries the US issued in 2008? And who will be the big buyers in 2009?
And just how important is China -- clearly now the largest single holder of Treasury bonds -- to the market? Both questions matter more than ever -- to the market, and to the US government. …
January 13, 2009
Emerging Markets
The fall in the US trade deficit in November
I’ll be unusually brief. I have been working through the latest data on China -- and, well, it is hard to top Calculated Risk. The fall in the US trade deficit today was easy to anticipate. …
November 12, 2008
Monetary Policy
China’s fiscal stimulus doesn’t necessarily mean that it will stop buying Treasuries
I tend to be a bit better at spotting risks than opportunities. I have long worried that China might conclude that it is no longer in its interest to continue to buy ever larger quantities of Trea…