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Centers & Programs

Center for Preventive Action

The Center for Preventive Action (CPA) aims to help policymakers devise timely and practical strategies to prevent and mitigate armed conflict around the world, especially in places that pose the greatest risk to U.S. interests.  CPA accomplishes this by commissioning in-depth reports, convening meetings of experts, and consulting with representatives of governments, international organizations, civil society groups, corporations, and the media. The center’s Global Conflict Tracker informs the general public about threats to international peace and security by providing a reliable and regularly updated online source of information about ongoing conflicts.

About the Program
237,000 are estimated to have died around the world as a consequence of organized armed conflict in 2022

Featured

Conflict Prevention

Conflicts to Watch in 2024
For CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey, U.S. foreign policy experts assessed the likelihood and impact of thirty potential conflicts that could emerge or escalate in 2024.

Report by Paul B. Stares January 4, 2024 Center for Preventive Action

Conflict Prevention

What to Worry About in 2024

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Panelists discuss potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2024, as well as their global political implications. This event will explore the results of the 2024 Preventive Priorities Survey, which will be available on CFR’s website on Thursday, January 4, 2024.

Virtual Event with Lee A. Feinstein, Mary Beth Long, David Miliband, Paul B. Stares, Juju Chang and Michael Froman January 9, 2024 Center for Preventive Action

Wars and Conflict

Global Conflict Tracker
The Center for Preventive Action’s Global Conflict Tracker is an interactive guide to ongoing conflicts around the world of concern to the United States.

Interactive February 22, 2023 Center for Preventive Action

Russia

Leadership Change in Russia
Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Russia does not appear as ironclad as it once did. Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya recommend that the United States prepare for potential leadership change in Moscow and develop response strategies with its allies to mitigate fallout. 

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya February 15, 2024 Center for Preventive Action

Middle East and North Africa

Climate Change and Regional Instability in the Middle East
The Middle East has suffered from protracted instability in recent decades, and climate-related disasters compound existing suffering. Marwa Daoudy argues that the United States and its partners should center mitigation efforts in assistance to the region. 

Report by Marwa Daoudy October 31, 2023 Center for Preventive Action

Climate Change

Climate, Conflict, and COP28: The Burden on Unstable Regions
In Dubai, leaders should focus their attention on policy solutions for vulnerable regions where climate change is amplifying the consequences of armed conflict and compounding failures of governance.

Article by Natalie Caloca December 1, 2023

Conflict Prevention

Averting Major Power War
Although no two major powers have openly fought in over three-quarters of a century, growing tensions between the United States, China, India, and Russia threaten renewed conflict. CFR’s Paul B. Stares argues a new logic—“mutual assured survival”—could keep the peace.

Report by Paul B. Stares February 27, 2023 Center for Preventive Action

Climate Change

Climate Security and Instability in the Bay of Bengal Region
The countries on the Bay of Bengal already face some of the world’s most severe natural disasters, and climate change will likely make things worse. Sarang Shidore argues the United States should partner with regional organizations to increase mitigation efforts.

Report by Sarang Shidore April 19, 2023 Center for Preventive Action

Program Experts

Program Director

Paul B. Stares

General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action

  • Middle East and North Africa

    Virtual Roundtable: Managing Global Disorder: Major Power Rivalry in the Middle East

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    Even as the United States debates its role in the Middle East, it still retains significant power and influence in the region. With intensifying great power competition, however, regional dynamics and the prospects for preventing, containing, and mitigating conflicts are shifting. Panelists discuss these topics and possible avenues for cooperation among the major powers. Additional Resources For further reading, please see the CFR discussion paper, "Major Power Rivalry in the Middle East" by Steven A. Cook.

    Virtual Event with Anna Borshchevskaya, Steven A. Cook and Paul B. Stares April 6, 2021 Center for Preventive Action

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    What to Worry About in 2021

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    Panelists discuss potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2021, as well as their global political implications. This event explored the results of CFR's 2021 Preventive Priorities Survey.

    Virtual Event with Michèle A. Flournoy, David H. Petraeus, Paul B. Stares and Bianna Golodryga January 25, 2021 Center for Preventive Action

  • Economics

    Another Year of Crisis? Assessing the Top National Security and Market Risks for 2021

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    Webinar with Robert Kahn, Paul B. Stares and Carla Anne Robbins January 14, 2021 Center for Preventive Action

  • Wars and Conflict

    Virtual Roundtable: The Crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh

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    In late September 2020, fighting broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Although Russia has since brokered a cease-fire, the situation remains very tense and volatile. There are numerous ways the crisis could escalate and become an even larger threat to regional peace and security. Please join our speakers, Ambassador (Ret.) Carey Cavanaugh, professor at the University of Kentucky Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce, and Olesya Vartanyan, senior analyst for the South Caucasus region at the International Crisis Group, to discuss why this conflict matters for the United States and what policy options are available to defuse the crisis. This meeting is made possible by the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

    Virtual Event with Carey Cavanaugh, Olesya Vartanyan and Paul B. Stares October 19, 2020 Center for Preventive Action

  • China

    Beyond Ladakh: The Future of Sino-Indian Rivalry

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    Since May 2020, an ongoing military standoff between Chinese and Indian troops at various points along the two countries’ disputed border has exposed fracture lines in the China-India relationship and heightened the potential for further military escalation. Even with recent statements around disengaging troops, the standoff proved that rivalry between the two powers could affect the prospects for escalation at the border and elsewhere in the region. Please join our speakers, Tanvi Madan, director of the India Project and senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, and Yun Sun, director of the China program and codirector of the East Asia program at the Henry L. Stimson Center, to discuss these risks and U.S. policy options. This meeting is made possible by the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

    Webinar with Tanvi Madan, Yun Sun and Paul B. Stares October 12, 2020 Center for Preventive Action

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