Will the Biden Administration Abandon Democracy in Venezuela?

Once upon a time, the Biden administration talked a lot about human rights and democracy. "President Biden is committed to a foreign policy that...is centered on the defense of democracy and the protection of human rights, Secretary of State Blinken said in 2021. "We will incentivize democratic behavior," he said that year in another speech.

In 2022, a reporter in a press conference said "The Biden administration has promised to put human rights at the center of its foreign policy" and asked if that had happened. Blinken replied "As you said, very rightly, first, it’s something that President Biden felt very strongly about putting back at the center of our foreign policy, and we’ve done that.  We’ve done that in shining a spotlight on human rights abuses.  We’ve done that in rallying other countries to speak out, stand up, and take action against these abuses.  We’ve done that in the actions that we’ve taken ourselves."

In 2023 he said "President Biden has made promoting and defending human rights a priority for our foreign policy, and it’s a priority for this department.  It’s a priority in every – in every bureau of this department, in every part of the world."

But not when it comes to Venezuela.

The Wall Street Journal reported, on March 29, something that has been increasingly clear: when it comes to Venezuela, the administration is much, much more concerned about oil prices and migration issues than democracy. "Biden Is Unlikely to Reimpose Oil Sanctions on Venezuela," said the headline. The story reports that "U.S. officials are concerned" that sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry "would raise the price of gas at U.S. pumps and prompt more migration from Venezuela as President Biden campaigns for re-election in November."

In October, the Biden administration lifted petroleum sanctions --giving a general license for work in the oil and gas sector for six months--and said the goal was to promote democracy in Venezuela. And it said the sanctions would be reimposed if there were no progress: “The United States government retains the authority to amend or revoke all authorizations should Maduro and his representatives fail to follow through on their commitments.” There has been no progress. Most recently, the Maduro regime barred the opposition's extremely popular candidate for president in July's election-- Maria Corina Machado-- from running and has been jailing her closest advisers and otherr human rights leaders. The opposition chose a substitute candidate, Carina Yoris, so they could stay in the election. She too was barred from running--while a hand-picked candidate was registered by the regime as the "opposition" candidate.

So will sanctions be reimposed? The Journal has it right, as has seemed clear for months. The commitment to democracy was verbal only. Maduro figured that out fast, and since October there has been zero political progress--not in the release of political prisoners, not in freedom of speech or press, and of course not regarding free elections.

This makes a mockery of the promises Maduro made, and of the assurances the Biden administration gave. The six-month general license runs out in days, on April 18, and then what? My bet is that we will see minor steps by the White House to save face: reimposition of some sanctions on gold trafficking, for example, and lifting of some special licenses. But the general license, which is where the money is for oil companies and the Maduro regime, will be extended. I dearly wish to be wrong, but like the Journal I believe I am not.

Extension of the general license will be a huge victory for the Maduro regime and a huge defeat for Venezuelans--and will do nothing for the Biden administration. It will have no discernible effect on oil prices in this election year because Venezuela is unable to increase production quickly. As the U.S. Energy Information Administration put it in late 2023, "years of underinvestment and mismanagement of Venezuela’s energy sector will likely limit crude oil production growth to less than 200,000 barrels per day (b/d) by the end of 2024, requiring more time and investment for additional growth." In a world using about 100 million barrels a day, that increase (if it materializes) is minor and will not affect prices in these months before the election.

And lifting sanctions will have no discernible effect on migration. Venezuelans--more than seven million of them--have fled Venezuela because the regime there has destroyed the economy and is viciously repressive. A recent poll asked Venezuelans who have fled whether they would go back if the economy improved. It found that "political change in Venezuela would be the biggest incentive for the nation’s migrants in the US to return to their homeland." In fact, "More than 65% of Venezuelans say they would go back to their country if the opposition wins this year’s presidential elections. Less than 15% say they would do so if President Nicolás Maduro secures a third term, even if the economy significantly improves...."

So Biden policy today is exactly wrong. It will fail--to increase oil supplies noticeably, to keep oil prices down, and to get Venezuelans to go back home. It will succeed in making life easier for Nicolas Maduro  and his regime, and it will show Venezuelans that the Biden administration is thinking only about our election and abandoning the policy of helping them regain their freedom. 

The day the Biden administration extends the general license is the day administration officials should just plain stop telling us how human rights is at the center of their foreign policy. Let's hope that instead, White House and State Department officials realize that their policy of "incentivizing" better conduct by Maduro by lifting sanctions has failed completely. A policy of pressure on Maduro and solidarity with Venezuelan democrats, unlikely though it seems today, is still within reach.